Why is the increased death rate being ignored?

Oh blast, thanks growstuff. I actually meant per day. Reminder to self, engage brain. But the 283 figure is even higher. I find it concerning.

maddyone

I meant per week is 250….

The current 7 day average across the whole of the UK is 283.

OakDryad

Yes, thanks, growstuff. One can look at this from many perspectives. It can surprise people to learn that, in England and Wales, over half a million people die each year. Dementia and ischemic heart disease are still far and away the largest causes of death in older people and were so even when Covid was at its height. I think Covid is currently accounting for 5-6% of all deaths. No reason to be complacent. As long as infection continues there is scope for a variant to emerge that could be as lethal as the one in Steven Soderbergh's film Contagion which was remarkably prophetic.

From memory, it's 8.7% (or thereabouts). It's currently the third highest killer.

Thank you all for all the statistics. I was worried about the death rate as it is seems particularly high in our authority but it seems like generally it is very similar to ore Covid rates. That really surprised me,

I meant per week is 250….

Gosh, is the average number of deaths per 250? I thought it was fewer than that. Yes, it does worry me.

Yes, thanks, growstuff. One can look at this from many perspectives. It can surprise people to learn that, in England and Wales, over half a million people die each year. Dementia and ischemic heart disease are still far and away the largest causes of death in older people and were so even when Covid was at its height. I think Covid is currently accounting for 5-6% of all deaths. No reason to be complacent. As long as infection continues there is scope for a variant to emerge that could be as lethal as the one in Steven Soderbergh's film Contagion which was remarkably prophetic.

Nandalot

ONS numbers for deaths registered in England and Wales for March:

2017 48577
2018 51131
2019 43817

In the four weeks ended 1 April 2022 the number is 42739.

That should work

Eek! What happened to the spacing on that table?

Just noticed there's been a later release. Sorry OakDryad.

OakDryad

What is your source for these numbers please?

The ONS is only reporting numbers to the week ended 1 April 2022. In these, the total number of deaths from all causes was 9840, the lowest weekly total this year. The number of deaths involving Covid was 853 of which the number of deaths due to Covid was 529. I agree, week on week the numbers are rising slightly. 529 is the highest since the week ended 18 February (but still less than 6% of the total number of deaths in the week.)

However, the ONS are reporting an increased delay between death and death registration due to pressures on local registration services as they return to normal working and deal with a backlog of delayed birth registrations and other work due to changes to marriage and immigration law. These delays will skew the numbers.

If you're interested, these are the ONS figures for England and Wales only up to 1 April.

The second column is deaths due to influenza and pneumonia and the third column is due to Covid.
"Due to" means it was the main cause of death - not something incidental ie with Covid.

Two things strike me. Firstly, the number of deaths due to Covid has consistently been above deaths due to influenza and pneumonia, despite what some people have claimed. Secondly, the deaths due to Covid have been rising for five weeks.

Week endingDeaths due to influenza and pneumoniaDeaths due to Covid-19
7 Jan 2022439712
14 Jan 20224851,070
21 Jan 20224271,082
28 Jan 2022395986
4 Feb 2022375817
11 Feb 2022376705
18 Feb 2022335559
25 Feb 2022375503
4 Mar 2022386439
11 Mar 2022386417
18 Mar 2022381446
25 Mar 2022336488
1 Apr 2022286529

www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/datasets/weeklyprovisionalfiguresondeathsregisteredinenglandandwales

Nandalot

Does anyone know the average at this time of year pre Covid for comparison?

.

Does anyone know the average at this time of year pre Covid for comparison?

Thankyou volver

https://www.gransnet.com/uploads/talk/202204/medium-226348-screenshot-2022-04-15-151812.jpg https://www.gransnet.com/uploads/talk/202204/medium-641366-screenshot-2022-04-15-151732.jpg

Its not clear Daisymae, not if you take away the artefacts caused by variations in reporting on different days of the week.

coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
Seems pretty clear to me.

I haven't read that OakDryad but I will .

But I think it adds to the view that we can't just take a number that was reported yesterday and say that rates are rising. It's significantly more complicated than that.

Just to add to the confusion but to make it clear where I am getting my numbers from:

www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/datasets/weeklyprovisionalfiguresondeathsregisteredinenglandandwales

Released on 12 April 2022 and only relates to England and Wales.

LilacChaser I don't know if the death rates are decreasing. I know that 350 people didn't die on Thursday, same as I know that the number who died on Saturday and Sunday wasn't zero.

We still take stats out of context.

ONS Coronavirus reporting up until the 9th April, released yesterday (14th)

www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/14april2022

Deaths, UK Government reporting: coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/deaths

Volver you almost sound as though you're apologizing for saying, well, actually, the death rates are decreasing. What a very sad state of affairs when Gransnet members actually seem to relish the high death rates, and the "surge" in cases. Well, here's some more 'bad news' for you.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-61106918

What is your source for these numbers please?

The ONS is only reporting numbers to the week ended 1 April 2022. In these, the total number of deaths from all causes was 9840, the lowest weekly total this year. The number of deaths involving Covid was 853 of which the number of deaths due to Covid was 529. I agree, week on week the numbers are rising slightly. 529 is the highest since the week ended 18 February (but still less than 6% of the total number of deaths in the week.)

However, the ONS are reporting an increased delay between death and death registration due to pressures on local registration services as they return to normal working and deal with a backlog of delayed birth registrations and other work due to changes to marriage and immigration law. These delays will skew the numbers.

As if I wasn't unpopular enough today. Here goes anyway...

The 1,984 deaths in the last week is the reported number, not the actual number of people who died in the past week. There appears to have been quite a spike on Wednesday, with 600 reported deaths, which is way above the average. The average number of actual deaths per day is steady at around 250. Perhaps the 600 includes a backlog? I know 250 is a lot of people, and I am not downplaying it, but we have to think of it in context.

Although there is less testing than before the ONS Survey is continuing and that tells us that there are more people than ever before who would test positive. However, that number is falling, according to yesterday’s figures. While there are a large number of cases in the country, obviously it will prove fatal for more people than we would hope but there will also be lots of people who test positive but for whom the COVID is not the actual cause of death. Not a popular view, I grant you, but it’s the truth.

We also have the hospital occupancy rate as measure of the state of the pandemic. Since about the 1st April the number of patients in hospital with COVID has been decreasing.